Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that his involvement in the first Ashes Test appears doubtful due to ongoing fitness concerns.
Media speculation from Australia had suggested that Cummins might miss the entire series, though the pace bowler himself has now given a more comprehensive update on his condition.
The 32-year-old has been struggling with a back stress injury that has kept him sidelined since his last competitive match in July.
While Cummins has restarted running exercises, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his rehabilitation program.
"It's difficult to assign a percentage on it, but my assessment is probably less likely than likely," stated Cummins. "My bowling preparation begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on turf."
Team mentor Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would need a minimum of four weeks of net sessions to have any chance of playing in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.
Cummins supported this assessment, clarifying: "It's necessary to have at least approximately a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to ensure you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without concern."
Given the compressed timeframe, there are also doubts about Cummins' fitness for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.
Should Cummins be unfit, former captain Steve Smith is likely to lead the side, with Scott Boland possibly stepping in in the bowling attack.
Australia have held the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.
Cummins' current injury concerns echo challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the second-youngest player to take a five-wicket haul in an innings at that time.
However, his explosive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins endured six years before his second Test appearance due to multiple stress fractures in his lower back.
When healthy, Cummins has established himself as one of cricket's elite fast bowlers. The experienced campaigner has taken 309 Test wickets at an impressive average of 22.10.
His record in Australia is even more formidable, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has claimed 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.
In the latest Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and confirming his value to the Australian side.
As captain, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's triumphant World Test Championship final and excelling in their 50-over World Cup final victory against India.
He remains the only leader in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.
England also face their own fitness worries with captain Ben Stokes, who has been affected by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.
Both teams will be assessing their key players closely as the much-anticipated Ashes series approaches.
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