Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.